Hurricane season officially begins June 1st but activity doesn’t really get going until the Atlantic and Caribbean waters warm significantly over 80 degrees. Two areas that hurricane watchers keep an eye on are the Caribbean Ocean and the west coast of Africa. Tropical thunderstorms develop near the Azores in clusters and get caught up in the easterly trade winds. Sometimes these thunderstorms will create their own low pressure system and gather strength feeding on the warm tropical water as they take the long journery eastward across the Atlantic Ocean. Depending on upper air systems, these storms will either fall apart from upper wind shear or gather strength with the right upper air dynamics. This year the probability of a hurricane making landfall are 3, and named storms 16 which is higher than a normal year. We are definitely in a high cycle of activity.
A new named storm Dorian in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean has recently strengthened into tropical storm which is a week away from any threat to coastal areas of the United States.