Three days ago here at WeatherEast I predicted our chances for a white Christmas at 22%. After observing several computer models there’s a general agreement that a low pressure will form off Cape Cod Christmas Eve throwing back a period of snow over Connecticut for several hours, making our first White Christmas in eight years. The mantle of white over our landscapes will last through New Years Day as temperatures plummet through next week with a couple of more chances of snow later in the week. For now I’m calling for 2-4 inches of snow on the ground Christmas morning. I’ll make one more pass on this latest development Sunday.

Temperatures will fluctuate wildly the next several days from a mild day, cooler tomorrow and cold Thursday and Friday. How about the 50’s with rain Saturday and cooler Christmas Eve with showers. Changeable weather conditions may have us from the outside looking in on any chance for a white Christmas for the 8th straight year. Computers models are hinting of a possible east coast storm Christmas day as colder air returns in our area late this weekend giving us slim possibility of some frozen precipitation on Christmas. We would be on the northern fringe of snow if this storms develops. It’s way too early to have any confidence in this storm coming together. Right now I’m giving a 22% chance this will happen. I’ll keep this blog updated on any change from the 22%. So for now as we put our heads down for a long winters nap we’ll just be “Dreaming of a White Christmas”.

On a morning walk this week I had to do a double take when the narrow path meandered its way to canopy of total green. The stubborn maples sheltered in a low area from the cold winds still had their green leaves with all their glory of mid-summer. It truly was a surreal moment for late November when the temperatures were in the mid 20’s. So why are the leaves still on the trees so late in the autumn season. September and October were the 3rd warmest months on record with September 4 degrees normal above and October 7 degrees above normal. As we transitioned into November with finally more fall like autumn conditions the chlorophyll which breaks down the green color on trees was lagging behind. So keep your rakes within reach the next couple of weeks.

I was startled to see a Monarch butterfly pictured above last weekend at the West Hartford Reservoir hiking trails with my daughters German Shepherd. Through my entire hike I was thinking that it did not seem right for Monarchs to be here so late in the year, so later in the day I researched their migration habits and in deed something was very wrong. By early November these grand insects should have completed their migratory journey to Mexico. After investigating the lapse of many Monarchs heading south is that record warmth Autumn weather kept vegetation plentiful for them survive and a unusual strong southerly jet stream wind made their voyage almost impossible. Hopefully it will not be too late for a some of the strong to defy the odds and finally find their way home. Can you image this beautiful delicate looking insect flying 2000 miles to finally end a lifecycle. Incredible.

Before yesterdays snow event, how many times did you hear the media scream “blizzard” at you all week? I’m sorry to say we did not have a blizzard, just a very strong Nor’easter. So how would one classify a true blizzard? Of course blizzards are very dangerous that are combination of blowing snow and wind resulting in very low visibilities. Officially the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains large amounts of snow or blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph mph and visibilities less than a 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours which we did not have. Actually The National Weather Service admitted that the storm would not have blizzard conditions but held back from lifting Blizzard warnings.
Maybe next time go to your nearest DQ to feel the cold and sensation on what a true Blizzard should be.