Don’t hold your if you’re expecting and measurable snowfall anytime soon. Weather enthusiasts who may have snow rulers in their yard have likely forgotten about them. To date central Connecticut is over 3 feet below normal with only 5 inches officially measured at this location. Any snow storms need to come in a hurry the next 6 weeks to challenge the lowest snowfall total for a winter season of 13 inches. Over 4 and half feet is our average for a season. The next 10-14 days will have much warmer than normal temperatures with below average precipitation.

I have been keeping climate and weather data in New Britain for 36 years and have never seen anything like this with departures from normal in temperature and snowfall. December averaged an incredible 10 degrees above normal and February to date 4.5 degrees normal. Snowfall for the season is looking like it may not reach a one foot total amount. To date I have recorded only 5 inches of snow with the bulk of it falling two months ago on December 11th with 3 inches. The average winter seasonal snowfall here is 53 inches. Looking at long range weather models, above normal temperatures with continue through February with not much measurable snowfall. At least our fuels bills will get a reprieve with a savings of 20-25% from last year. Mother nature always seems to have away to even the score. So, March and April could make up for the balmy winter days we all endured.

Connecticut is experiencing an unusually warm winter with not much to show in the snow department. Actually, January averaged 10 degrees above normal in New Britain with only one and half inches of snow. The average for January is 10″. There’s various reasons why we’re having a Virginia like winter without getting too technical is the La Nina phase of a Pacific Ocean jet stream is affecting the continental US. Usually a La Nina has a blocking effect for allowing Polar outbreaks to move southward from Canada in the eastern part of the country. Low pressure systems from the Pacific Ocean ride along La Nina jet stream and hit the west coast with heavy rain and upper elevation snow. These low pressure systems move across the country and move in the Great Lakes region giving a general rain pattern for us. Remember: If a storm system moves to our west we are in the warm sector from the counter clockwise wind circulation from the low pressure. The reason for below normal snow falls.

About Climate Change? Yes, there’s a component to that too. For the last several decades the average temperature has been gradually rising. You probably noticed the hotter summers lately.

Next week September will be coming to an end and it will hand off its torch to October when we transition to a true autumnal month. Usually fall chill settles in as the sunlight is chased away by early night darkness. The torch handed off to our tenth month will be “hot” when temperatures have a good chance to rise into the 90’s by the end of next week. Hopefully this mini heat wave will be short lived as more normal weather temperatures arrive by mid October. No flannels, no sweaters, no jackets and no comforters will be a mainstay as mid July rears its ugly head again. So… your attire next week when visiting a local apple orchard and pumpkin patch may have an unusual look as the October dress code will be broken with flip flops, shorts and tee shirts. I feel many will approve.

We will experience the strongest wind gusts tonight and tomorrow since tropical storm Irene hit Connecticut on August 27th, 2011. The atmosphere is set up perfectly for a tight pressure gradient from a departing low and strong high pressure area moving in. As the low pressure deepens to our north and strengths there will be wind gusts of 50-60 mph or more at times. Example: When walking through the caverns of skyscrapers in New York City don’t you notice the high wind squeezed between the building? Same analogy with the high and low pressure areas. The closer the high and low pressure areas are together, the stronger the “pressure gradient”, and the stronger the winds. On weather maps, lines of constant pressure are drawn which are called “isobars”. These isobars are usually labeled with their pressure value in millibars.