Have you looked around your garage as the days started to chill and was wondering what lay under the large, dusty tarp in the back corner of the garage hidden from stacked paint cans? Uncovering the tarp there was old faithful looking tired, waking up for another winters task. Time to see if rust bucket has another year in its chassis. Several pulls later a labored cough sound was bouncing off the garage walls trying to engage the beast to start. Now you wonder if it’s time place the old fellow to the curb or buy new with all the bells and whistles and yes, those heated handlebars.You’re thinking about a long range winter forecast of another La Nina winter with below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures.
Invest in new or repair old?
Personally, I wouldn’t gamble on a long-range winter forecast. Accuracy is usually 30-40%. Even with forecasted milder winter there’s always a good chance that a strong Nor’easter or two or three will come up the eastern seaboard and leaves over a foot of the white stuff in its tracks. Then what do you do with a rusted out, flat tired, coughing poor excuse of useful tool to clear a snow ridden driveway.
I personally would shop around on Black Friday and find the one with the heated handlebars. You call it, “piece of mind”.
On a recent hike on a spectacular most colorful autumn day the trail came upon a calm lake reflecting the glorious reds, golds, and oranges on the still water. As I gazed ahead a shadowy grayish blue image seemed out of place on the waters edge ahead of me as the trail meandered towards the lake. There was a stately 4 foot tall Great Blue Heron not more 2 arms length away without any fear in giving up his space. Instant tranquility came upon me witnessing a complete autumn spectrum of colors with the added new color of blue. Possibly the Great Blue Heron was waiting to show off his presence before natures call to migrate to his winters home in the southern regions of the continent. His calmness was showing before natures urgent call to retire from a New England summer.
Being outdoors this time of year makes us appreciate our place in this world.
Good Will to All People
A white Christmas in Connecticut is having at least one inch of snow on the ground at 7:00am December 25th. Officially two thirds of Connecticut east and north and northwest of Hartford did have their white Christmas, while areas south and west where borderline in hitting the mark. A white News Years? Southern New England has been in a warm weather pattern through the fall and into early winter and this trend will continue at least for the next 6-10 days.
With the political landscape being so polarized now I will throw in some of my thoughts about climate change and global warming in this complexed arena. Having a background in science including meteorology I’m offering thoughts and insight for you to consider for this very controversial subject.
First of all I agree that burning of fossil fuels has created trapped carbon dioxide gases in the atmosphere adding a greenhouse veil over our planet. We must not forgot that climate change is also long process of various cycles the earth goes through that can add up to millions of years. Many may not know that where each one of is standing now a glacier 2 miles thick of ice covered New England only 12,000 years ago all the way to Long Island Sound. The boulders we see now dotting our landscape is what was left behind when the glacier receded north by the warming of the atmosphere (another cycle).
The sun also has a defined role in climate change. The sun powers life on earth, it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. It influences Earths climate. Solar cycles changes brightness and dimming of the sun taking 11 years to complete. During a normal solar cycle sunspot activity both lower and increases and lower activity called “grand minimum” may have the ability to temporarily cool down the earths surface moderately. With that said this cycle may have the ability to slow down the warming of the atmosphere but not reverse human caused global warming.
The current forcing of man made activities are clearly outside of the natural cycle range.
Christmas Eve looks to be wet and wild this year. Some of the reliable long range weather models have a strong low pressure system tracking just to our west on Christmas Eve. When a low passes to our west the counter clockwise winds draw in warm moist oceanic air from the Gulf Stream. This storm has a chance to be very strong by the potential of a strong air lift dynamic with heavy wind swept rain, severe thunderstorms, gale force winds approaching tropical storm force and temperatures approaching 60 degrees. If everything does come together there will be rapid melting with our snowpack creating flooding in areas of poor drainage. This active system will move out quickly Christmas morning with some arctic cold spilling in from the back side of the low pressure area causing a flash freeze where there’s standing water.
Stay tuned. I will issue updates.